Where are interest rates going? When? Farm Credit hear these questions regularly. The short answer is nobody knows for sure but history tells us that we are closer to the end of the low interest rate cycle than the peak.
The 10 year United States Treasury (“10 YR UST”) Bond is a major benchmark for long term interest rates due to the perception that it represents the “risk-free” rate of return fixed income investors use to measure other investment options. The chart below of the 10 YR UST from 1962 through mid-2014 shows the long-term trend in this benchmark rate.